Question 1

What is a Monte Carlo forecasting in Agile?

Accepted Answer

Monte Carlo forecasting in Agile runs thousands of simulations (typically 100,000) by repeatedly sampling your team’s past velocities until a given amount of work is completed. The result is a probability-based forecast that shows delivery likelihoods and helps teams plan with confidence.

Question 2

What questions can Agile Monte Carlo Charts answer?

Accepted Answer

Agile Monte Carlo Charts answer two key questions: When are we most likely to finish all remaining work? How many items can we realistically deliver within a sprint or interval?

Question 3

How much does the Agile Monte Carlo Charts app cost?

Accepted Answer

The Agile Monte Carlo Charts app is free for teams with up to 10 users. For larger teams, pricing scales with the number of seats and can be calculated here. A 30-day free trial is also available, so you can explore all features before committing.

Question 4

How to add Agile Monte Carlo Charts to the Jira dashboard?

Accepted Answer

Install the app using this link and start with a free 30-day trial. Once installed, open your Jira dashboard, browse the gadget library, and add Agile Monte Carlo Charts by Broken Build. The gadget appears on your dashboard instantly and is ready to use right away.

Question 5

What is a Kanban Monte Carlo simulation?

Accepted Answer

A Kanban Monte Carlo simulation uses historical throughput data from a Kanban system to forecast delivery outcomes. It models thousands of possible scenarios based on how many items are completed over time, helping teams predict when remaining work is likely to be finished or how much can be delivered by a certain date - without relying on estimates.

Question 6

What is a Monte Carlo simulation in Scrum?

Accepted Answer

In Scrum, a Monte Carlo simulation uses past sprint throughput or completed issues history to generate probability-based forecasts. Instead of committing to a single sprint-based date, it shows likelihood ranges for completing a scope of work, helping teams and stakeholders better understand delivery risk and uncertainty.

Question 7

What data does the Agile Monte Carlo Charts use?

Accepted Answer

The Monte Carlo simulation chart is primarily based on historical throughput (completed work items over time) from your chosen Jira data source, ensuring forecasts reflect real delivery performance. You can also enable an alternative throughput data source by selecting another board, project, release, epic, initiative, or custom JQL to use as the basis for forecast calculations. This allows you to model scenarios using comparable historical data when the current scope lacks sufficient history. Even when alternative throughput is enabled, remaining work and health metrics continue to be calculated from the main data source.

Question 8

How is delivery risk shown?

Accepted Answer

Delivery risk is displayed using a RAG (red / amber / green) indicator based on the probability of meeting a target date.

Question 9

Can I get cross-team data to be visualized on one Monte Carlo simulation chart?

Accepted Answer

Yes. The Monte Carlo simulation chart supports portfolio-level forecasting by aggregating data from multiple sources - boards (Scrum/Kanban), project scopes (projects or releases), issue hierarchy (parent issue, issue links), epics, and custom JQL filters. This allows you to run a single Monte Carlo simulation and assess delivery risk and probabilities across teams, programs, or the entire portfolio.

Agile Monte Carlo Charts

Turn historical delivery data into probability-based forecasts you can trust.

Turn throughput into probability-based forecasts with Monte Carlo simulation chart in Jira

Monte Carlo forecasting configuration & inputs

Monte Carlo forecasting health metrics and risk insights

Monte Carlo Agile forecasting across Jira data sources

Aggregated data with high-level insights

Forecast delivery with confidence!

Key features of Monte Carlo simulation forecasting in Jira

Frequently Asked Questions

Related interactive Examples

Why trust Broken Build apps?